Arthur Hayes "Cryptocurrency Market to Form Peak in Q1 This Year"

Co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of venture capital Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of venture capital Maelstrom, stated on the 7th that "the cryptocurrency market will form a peak by the end of the first quarter this year."

Hayes analyzed this through his blog, saying, "Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating according to changes in the speed of dollar supply."

He noted, "The amount of dollars supplied to the global financial market is determined by the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve," adding, "By the end of the first quarter, the liquidity of dollars supplied by the Treasury and the Fed will be $612 billion." He continued, "Even if the expectations for pro-cryptocurrency and pro-business legislation proposed by the second Trump administration end in disappointment, the increased dollar liquidity during the first quarter could offset this," and added, "I see the selling point coming in the latter part of the first quarter, similar to previous years."

He pointed out that Bitcoin moves inversely to the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP). RRP refers to the case where the Fed borrows money from financial institutions with U.S. Treasuries as collateral. Hayes explained, "When RRP decreased, Bitcoin prices rose," and "the third quarter of 2022, when Bitcoin hit the bottom, was when the Fed's RRP peaked."