Overheating Strong Dollar... Won-Dollar Exchange Rate Rises Above 1,470 Won Again

The exchange rate has risen back to the 1,470 won level due to global dollar strength pressure.

On the 13th, the won-dollar exchange rate opened at 1,473.2 won, up 8.2 won from the previous session in the Seoul Foreign Exchange Market.

The rise in the exchange rate is attributed to the strong dollar resulting from the robustness of the U.S. employment market.

Previously, the U.S. non-farm payrolls for December recorded 256,000, surpassing both the previous month (212,000) and market expectations (165,000). The unemployment rate also slightly decreased to 4.1%, reaffirming the soundness of the labor market.

As a result, the outlook that the Federal Reserve's rate cut this year will be limited to just one instance is spreading, leading to a rise in Treasury yields and a strong dollar.

The dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against the currencies of six major countries, is at 109.701, up 0.33% from the previous trading day.

On this day, the won-dollar exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the 1,470 won range due to the global strong dollar and risk aversion sentiment.

Kookmin Bank predicted, "The possibility of a further delay in the Fed's rate cut has increased after the U.S. employment announcement, and the poor performance of the New York Stock Exchange has increased risk aversion, so the decline in the exchange rate will be very limited."

Hana Bank forecasted, "Concerns that the Fed's hawkish stance will be strengthened are stimulating the strong dollar trend, and the exchange rate will face upward pressure." The expected band for the won-dollar exchange rate on this day is 1,469~1,478 won.

However, caution towards the foreign exchange authorities and the selling volume from exporters are cited as factors that will limit the upper end of the exchange rate.

Woori Bank analyzed, "Exporters' high-point selling and the authorities' micro-adjustment caution will support the upper end of the exchange rate." It also diagnosed, "Since the expectation of reaching 1,500 won has weakened compared to before due to the strategic currency hedging by the National Pension Service at the beginning of the year, the maintenance of 400 billion dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and the Bank of Korea's market stabilization intention, negotiation volumes may aggressively flow in at the 1,470 won level."

Reporter Kim Yewon yen88@wowtv.co.kr