[Analysis] "Ripple Could Surpass Ethereum (ETH) in Market Cap"

An analyst from Messari has claimed that Ripple could surpass Ethereum (ETH) in market capitalization.

On the 16th (local time), Sam Ruskin, an analyst at Messari, stated on X, "I am confident that Ripple can surpass Ethereum's market cap," adding, "It is likely to happen within a month after Trump's inauguration in the short term." He continued, "After the U.S. presidential election, Ripple rose over 460%, surpassing the market caps of Binance Coin (BNB), Tether (USDT), and Solana (SOL)," and noted, "Considering Ethereum's indicators, Ripple, which still has additional upward catalysts, is in a favorable position."

He pointed out that "Ethereum is overvalued in almost all indicators," and despite open interest reaching an all-time high, the price remains 30% below its peak. Open interest is an indicator reflecting the sentiment of professional crypto traders rather than general investors, suggesting that Ethereum's on-chain demand has already reached saturation. He further explained, "The market cap of Ethereum spot ETFs is about 3% of Ethereum's market cap," indicating "even retail investors are not showing much interest in Ethereum."

In contrast, Ripple is recording a healthy level of open interest compared to Ethereum, and its correlation with actual price volatility is close, suggesting sufficient momentum to surpass in market cap.

Ruskin also argued that Ethereum is expected to face difficulties due to the emergence of competitors. He stated, "Ethereum is struggling in competition with Layer 1 projects like Solana and Sui, as well as Ethereum-based Layer 2 (L2)," and mentioned that Ethereum's L2 expansion roadmap is causing much debate within the community.

On the other hand, Ripple benefits from the lack of internal conflicts over its roadmap. Ruskin evaluated, "Ripple has almost no internal conflicts over its protocol roadmap," and "the Ripple community is united in the belief that Ripple will play a central role in future finance." He reiterated, "Additional catalysts such as Trump's inauguration, the launch of Ripple spot ETFs, the U.S. local corporate capital gains tax relief policy, and cyclical pumping remain," emphasizing that Ripple can sufficiently surpass Ethereum's market cap.