"Trump Boasts of Ending Ukraine War Quickly, But 'Gray Outlook' Emerges"

As Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, publicly pressures for a quick end to the Ukraine war, there are observations that this war might continue until mid-2026.

On the 22nd (local time), according to Ukrainian media RBC Ukraine and Kyiv Independent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented two scenarios in a report released on the 20th, suggesting that the Ukraine war could end by the end of 2025 or continue until mid-2026, predicting severe economic impacts. Initially, the IMF anticipated the war would end in the fourth quarter of 2025, but this outlook has turned more negative than before.

The IMF projected that Ukraine's external funding deficit would reach $177.2 billion (about 257 trillion won). The previous forecast was about $148 billion (about 214 trillion won). Additionally, the IMF predicted that Ukraine's GDP growth rate in 2025 would be -2.5%. Previously, it was expected that the GDP would grow by 2.5-3.5% as the war ended in 2025, but the figures have turned much more negative.

The IMF foresaw that Ukraine's Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) index would fall below 100% by 2027. The IMF's ARA typically ranges from 100-150% as an appropriate level.

However, IMF experts positively assessed in the report, stating, "The very strong political will of the (Ukrainian) authorities, the guarantee of financial support from global partners, and the anticipated debt relief instill confidence that macroeconomic and financial stability can be maintained even in negative scenarios." Ukrainian media mentioned the IMF report, stating, "Generally, both the baseline and negative scenarios are still exposed to exceptionally high uncertainty," and "There is particularly high uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the war and its impact on post-war recovery."

Reporter Song Jong-hyun scream@hankyung.com