Russia's Power Struggles in Syria: A Counterattack After 4 Years of Rebellion

Syria's Rebellion Resurfaces Amid Middle Eastern Tensions

Rebels Seize Largest Government Military Base in Northern Region

"Israel's Government Forces Show Signs of Weakening"

E-Hezbollah's Small-Scale Engagements in the Spotlight

Russia "Possibility of Attacking Decision-Making Bases in Ukraine"

In Syria, rebels have successfully launched their largest offensive in four years. The influence of Russia and Iran, which had been supporting government forces, has been weakened due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. After the COVID-19 pandemic, Syria's internal conflict has reignited, raising concerns that the power struggle between Russia and Iran could further escalate tensions in the region.

Syria's Power Struggles

According to CNN, Syrian rebels conducted a large-scale offensive on the 27th and 28th (local time), securing over 15 miles near Aleppo, the largest city in northern Syria, and capturing the largest government military base, Base 46. The Syrian Human Rights Observatory reported that during this period, approximately 100 rebels and over 54 government soldiers were killed. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, Qasem Soleimani, was also killed.

Rebel forces claimed to have captured 100 square miles within 10 hours and advanced about 5 miles from Aleppo. Syrian government forces, along with Russian forces, have been conducting airstrikes to suppress the rebels. This is considered the largest rebel offensive since 2020 when the conflict had reached a stalemate.

Syria's Internal Conflict Status as of the 29th. Red indicates Syrian government forces, orange indicates Kurdish forces, green indicates Syrian rebels, and gray indicates ISIS-controlled areas. LIVEUAMAP

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has evolved into an international proxy war with Russia and Iran supporting government forces, while the United States, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia back the rebels. The conflict, which had been dormant for a while, has reignited amid Middle Eastern tensions, with Russia and Iran focusing their military efforts on the war against Israel, while Russia also remains concerned about the conflict in Ukraine. The rebels are strengthening their offensive.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Middle East analyst stated, "Israel's government forces are showing signs of weakening due to the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran, and the government forces are intensifying their attacks to suppress the rebels."

There are concerns that Syria's internal conflict could reignite by the end of this year. Najat Rochdi, UN Special Coordinator for Syria, warned at a UN Security Council meeting on the 22nd that "this year could see the most intense fighting since 2020, with the potential for larger-scale destruction."

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Also Under Test

Israel and Hezbollah entered a ceasefire on the 27th after a year of conflict, but as small-scale engagements continue, the peace agreement is being tested.

On the 28th, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that "several militants entered southern Lebanon by vehicle, violating the ceasefire conditions," and "IDF fired upon them." The IDF also conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah's central rocket observation post in southern Lebanon, stating, "The military is suppressing all activities violating the ceasefire in southern Lebanon."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the military to "prepare for a strong response in case the ceasefire agreement is violated."

Hassan Nasrallah, a Hezbollah member of parliament, criticized, "Israel is attacking those returning to the country by vehicle," and "Israel is suppressing violations in this manner."

Russia warned that it could attack Ukraine's decision-making bases amid escalating tensions.

According to TASS, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, stated, "The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are selecting targets," and "military facilities, defense industry facilities, and decision-making bases in Kyiv could be targeted." The possibility of targeting the Kyiv presidential office and defense ministry was also mentioned.

Putin responded to a question about whether Russia could attack decision-making bases in Israel, such as the Orashnik, by saying, "Everything is possible." He emphasized, "We must be aware that Ukraine continues to attempt to attack our key facilities, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg."

Kim In-seok, reporter inside@hankyung.com