"High-flying Exchange Rate... Expected to Stabilize in the Mid-1300s in the Second Half of Next Year"

2025 Economic and Financial Market Predictions

Foreign Exchange Market Outlook

"In the Trump 2.0 era, the Won-Dollar exchange rate could become fixed above 1400 Won."

Hansangchun, a guest editorial writer for Hankyung, stated at the '2025 Domestic and International Economic and Financial Market Predictions Seminar' on the 12th, "If the world were to be mapped like Korea, the United States would be Gangnam," adding, "There is a high possibility that the Dollar will continue to strengthen after Donald Trump, the President-elect of the United States, takes office in January next year."

Mr. Han mentioned, "Considering the impact of selective reshoring, which is a core aspect of the Trump 2.0 era, the Dollar could show more strength than this year when a pivot (monetary policy shift) was implemented."

The Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan, which have a high correlation with the Won, are also variables. Mr. Han noted, "The fact that Shigeru Ishiba, the Japanese Prime Minister, has expressed that a weak Yen is desirable is a noteworthy factor." He explained that the People's Bank of China is also shifting its policy towards devaluing the Yuan after announcing a large-scale economic stimulus package last September.

Some predict that the Dollar's strength will gradually ease from the second half of next year. Kwon Namhoon, President of the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade, stated, "The key factors exacerbating the recent Won-Dollar exchange rate instability are the uncertainties and the aftermath of the martial law situation caused by the Trump election," predicting, "These are not long-lasting variables, and once the uncertainties are resolved, the exchange rate is likely to stabilize in the early 1300s after the first half of next year."

Lee Jaeok, Head of Retail Business at KB Securities, also said, "If the global economy gradually recovers, the Dollar is likely to turn weak," predicting, "The Won-Dollar exchange rate will fall to the mid-1300s in the second half of this year."

Reporter Lee Si-eun see@hankyung.com