Optimism Continues Despite Bitcoin Decline… ETF and Regulatory Easing Expectations Rise

Major Issues Overlapping, Roller Coaster Ride

Market Still Predominantly Bullish

Expectations for Additional ETF Approvals and Regulatory Easing

"60% Chance of New High by March"

The volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC), is soaring. This is due to the deepening synchronization between the US stock market and Bitcoin, along with concerns over a tariff war initiated by Trump.

Particularly, after David Sachs, the US White House AI and cryptocurrency czar, held his first press conference on the 4th (local time), Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 mark. This was because he did not provide specific comments on Bitcoin as the market had anticipated.

Sachs mentioned that considering Bitcoin as a strategic asset reserve is "the first thing to review," but only stated that "the discussion is in the early stages." Regarding the possibility of inclusion in a sovereign wealth fund, he suggested asking Howard Lutnick, the nominee for Secretary of Commerce, thus avoiding a direct answer.

On the 3rd, the US temporarily suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico, causing Bitcoin to surpass $100,000, but it fell to as low as $96,000 on that day.

"Uncertainty Will Persist"

Last week, the 'DeepSeek Shock' hit Bitcoin. When the Chinese startup DeepSeek released a 'low-cost, high-performance' AI model, US tech stocks like Nvidia plummeted, directly impacting the cryptocurrency market, which is coupled with the US stock market.

Additionally, President Trump added fuel to the volatility with his 'tariff bomb.' The uncertainty in the economy due to the US-initiated tariff war has increased the aversion to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, predicted, "The broad market sell-off due to economic uncertainty will lead to a short-term correction," and "Bitcoin could fall below $90,000."

The tariff measures on Mexico and Canada are only suspended for a month, the US-China trade conflict has already intensified, and additional tariffs on the European Union (EU) have been announced, so concerns about a global tariff war continue. Cryptocurrency service provider Matrixport predicted, "The uncertainty in the virtual asset market due to tariff policies will persist for the time being."

"New Bullish Momentum Could Form"

However, the bullish outlook remains predominant. This is due to predictions that additional cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved in the US, following Bitcoin and Ethereum. Currently, cryptocurrency ETFs like Ripple, Solana, and Litecoin are under review by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and with Paul Atkins, the new SEC commissioner, known as a pro-cryptocurrency figure, it is widely expected that these ETFs will be approved within the year.

The movement towards regulatory easing is also raising expectations. The New York Times reported on the 4th (local time) that the SEC is reducing staff in its cryptocurrency regulation department. Additionally, the SEC has reportedly formed a task force (TF) to clarify cryptocurrency regulations.

On Polymarket, the world's largest betting site based on cryptocurrency, the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new high next month is currently at 60% as of the 6th. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $109,007 on January 20.

ShayanBTC, a contributor to CryptoQuant, analyzed, "The recent correction in the cryptocurrency market has intimidated investors but also increased the likelihood of new demand inflow," and "If buying pressure enters at the key support level ($90,000), the current correction phase could become an opportunity to form new bullish momentum."