'Strong Trump Rally' is not over yet…"Bitcoin, 97.5k dollar rebound expected" [Kang Min-seung's Trade Now]

"Bitcoin, 97.5k stable dollar rebound expected"

"89.8k downward breakout possibility"

Donald Trump, who called himself the 'Great Unifier', was elected as the U.S. President, and Bitcoin (BTC) received a short-term adjustment, rebounding from the 95,000-dollar range and is now attempting to rise again.

Market experts predict that if Bitcoin stably surpasses 97,500 dollars, the possibility of a strong market will increase, but if it falls below the 89,800-dollar support line, the possibility of additional decline may increase.

As of 17:58 on the 28th, Bitcoin is trading at 1,533,070,000 won (based on Binance USDT market 95,449 dollars), up 0.06% from the previous day. The same perspective shows that the premium (price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) is recorded at -0.55%.

"U.S. inflation index rises again…additional tightening is urgent"

Jerome Powell Fed Chairman / Photo = U.S. Fed homepage

The recent global stock market saw a sharp rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) inflation index, which is closely monitored, rose again, showing signs of a soft landing. However, it is seen that the overall market turmoil caused by the collapse of the housing bubble does not have a significant impact. The economic index is in line with market expectations and does not interfere with the Fed's interest rate policy.

On the 27th, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the U.S. October core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose 2.8% from a year ago and 0.3% from the previous month. Although the core PCE was in line with market expectations, it recorded the highest level in six months since April this year. Overall, service prices rose sharply, fueling inflation concerns.

The core PCE is a major indicator that the Fed considers when determining policies such as the base interest rate, excluding volatile items such as food and energy.

The market expects that this announced index will support the Fed's tightening stance. The U.S. October consumer price index (CPI) announced earlier this month reversed its upward trend for the first time in seven months, and the producer price index (PPI) also showed signs of stabilization, raising concerns about inflation. Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, also mentioned the need for additional tightening and hinted at a speed adjustment.

On this day, U.S. economic media CNBC reported, "The October core PCE showed stronger numbers. The index announcement showed signs of confusion, and the national bond yield fell," and Bloomberg said, "U.S. inflation is still solid and it will take more time to approach the Fed's target of 2%," but also predicted, "The actual interest rate hike path may be complicated by Trump's policy direction."

The possibility of a December rate hike was reflected at 68.2%. / Photo = CME FedWatch Capture

The bond market is betting on the possibility of a December rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch on this day, the possibility of the Fed raising the base interest rate by 0.25% in December increased by about 9% points from the previous day to 68.2%. Conversely, the possibility of freezing the interest rate was reflected at 31.8%.

BlackRock, Bitcoin option 'flaring up'…"Volatility will increase"

Bitcoin Spot ETF Capital Inflow / Photo = Pasayde Investor

The Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded the highest inflow of 3,553,100,000 dollars (about 4 trillion 670 billion won) last week (18th to 22nd), but saw consecutive outflows for two trading days thereafter. Recent news that the Trump administration is expanding its crackdown on illegal assets, the additional purchase of 5,550 BTC by MicroStrategy, and the statement of resignation by Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are boosting the upward trend.

In particular, BlackRock's Bitcoin option expanded significantly as it was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The data analysis company Kaiko said in its recent research report, "BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF option, which was listed last week, recorded a trading volume of about 1.9 billion dollars on the first day," adding, "80% of them were composed of call options betting on price increases, showing strong demand from investors and a strong market outlook."

82% of BlackRock's Bitcoin Spot ETF option trading volume is composed of call options. Photo = Kaiko

Kaiko said, "The recent options products released based on the Bitcoin Spot ETF are greatly increasing market volatility and accelerating institutional choice," adding, "In the futures market, the open interest (OI) of Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) also reached a record high of about 22 billion dollars (about 30 trillion 679 billion won)," it said.

Open interest refers to contracts that have not yet been settled in futures and options trading. The increase in open interest means that funds are being invested in the market. In particular, large institutional investors trade mostly on the CME rather than general coin exchanges.

"Long-term investors, possibility of rebound…mid-term upward outlook"

The market's optimistic atmosphere and the additional buying of long-term investors are expected to be introduced. The on-chain analysis platform Glassnode analyzed in its weekly report on the 26th, "Bitcoin is very cautious at 100,000 dollars, and long-term investors are coming out in large-scale purchases."

Long-term investors recently traded 507,000 BTC. Photo = Glassnode

It added, "Long-term investors who have been holding Bitcoin for more than six months to a year have recently shown a sharp increase in upward momentum, trading 507,000 BTC," it said. The report said, "If the Bitcoin market rises further, the possibility of long-term investors' additional buying will increase."

Global asset trading platform Bitfinex said in its weekly research report, "After Bitcoin rebounded from the previous month's low (73,666 dollars), long-term investors have traded more than 461,000 BTC so far," adding, "Currently, the buying pressure is increasing, but it is still lower than the buying pressure during the strong market in March 2021 and March 2021." It added, "The upward momentum may be temporarily adjusted, but it is seen as a 'healthy breath'. The market is expected to absorb the buying pressure and continue the mid-term upward trend."

Overall asset trading volume continues to increase. / Photo = Santiment X Capture

The overall trading volume continues to increase even in the realization of investors' profits. Asset data analysis company Santiment said on the 27th, "The overall trading volume in November increased actively. In particular, on the 12th, the trading volume recorded 1,549,200,000 BTC, marking a peak since May," it said. It added, "After Bitcoin reached its all-time high, investors are realizing profits and funds are quickly moving to altcoins," adding, "The overall (housing market) trading volume increased by 32% in the last week of this month."

On the other hand, on social networks such as Twitter and Reddit, posts predicting Bitcoin's strength and weakness are all increasing. Santiment said, "Recently, on Twitter, etc., the mention that Bitcoin will reach 100,000 dollars has increased significantly, reflecting investors' fear of missing out (FOMO, fear of being left out in a rising market)," adding, "The mention that Bitcoin will rebound to 60-79k dollars is encouraging fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), but it is also acting as a catalyst for the market's upward momentum."

"Bitcoin, stable rebound expected at 97,500 dollars"

Market experts predict that if Bitcoin stably surpasses 97,500 dollars, the possibility of an upward trend will increase. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below the 93,500-dollar support line, the possibility of additional decline will increase. On-chain analysts said that the stablecoin inflow into major exchanges exceeded 9.7 billion dollars (about 13 trillion 500 billion won) in the past month, indicating that the market's buying power is increasing.

Bitcoin rebounded from the short-term support line and fell to the 90,000-dollar range, starting the upward trend again. Ayushi Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, "Bitcoin started a short-term adjustment near the 97,500-dollar range and is now rising again from the 97,360-dollar level," adding, "If Bitcoin surpasses the 95,750-dollar resistance line, a big rise may begin."

Analysts said, "If Bitcoin continues the upward trend, it can test the 97,500-dollar line and rise to 98,000 dollars," adding, "If Bitcoin falls to 93,500 dollars, it can retreat to 91,800 dollars and 90,500 dollars. If it rebounds to 90,000 dollars, it can expand to 88,000 dollars."

Rakesh Upadhyay, a researcher at Cointelegraph, predicted, "If Bitcoin breaks the 'psychological resistance line' of 100,000 dollars, it can rise to 113,331 dollars and 125,000 dollars," adding, "If Bitcoin falls below 89,857 dollars, the optimistic outlook will be invalidated. It can decline to 85,000 dollars."

Upadhyay said, "The large-scale capital inflow of Bitcoin Spot ETF, the additional purchase of MicroStrategy, and the fact that Bitcoin could not break through the 100,000-dollar wall are expected to encourage short-term investors' buying pressure," adding, "If it fails to break through the 100,000-dollar wall again, a strong decline may occur."

Bitcoin is successfully rebounding from the short-term decline and buying pressure is re-entering. Alex Kuptsikevich, a market analyst at FxPro, said, "Recently, Bitcoin has fallen about 9% from its peak in the atmosphere of investors' profit realization and global stock market's cautious atmosphere," adding, "In the market, the expectation that the adjustment will end is increasing as the rebound appears."

On the other hand, there is also an analysis that the funds collecting profits are moving from Bitcoin to altcoins. He said, "This Bitcoin adjustment is not due to fundamental concerns about Bitcoin. The impact of investors moving profits to altcoins is significant," he said.

Altcoin Season Index / Photo = Blockchain Center Capture

It added, "Bitcoin is leading the recovery of the current asset market and Bitcoin will follow this," it predicted. According to the Blockchain Center on this day, the Altcoin Season Index, which indicates Bitcoin's strength, recorded 28 on the 28th, showing the highest level since April.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit Reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io